Yet within those overall figures, there are huge variations. According to Zhang Shuxiao, an estate agent at 21st Century in Xian, a large industrial city in central China: “There is no bubble here like there is in Shanghai or Beijing. The market is very stable without any significant increases or price drops.” However, in Chengdu, in south-western China, big problems are developing. “Prices have dropped 20 per cent in the last year, especially for new apartments,” says Li Qian at Shunchi Real Estate Agency in the city. “It could take two or three years before they come back.” Similar stories of plunging prices are beginning to appear in a number of big cities. Meanwhile, several other indicators point to a slowing property market. Sales have declined and floor area under construction fell in August, while production of steel, cement and air conditioners was flat or down in the month – another sign of weak activity. Analysts say that mortgage approvals have also dropped sharply in recent months. “We believe the likelihood of a property sector meltdown in China is high,” says Jerry Lou, an analyst at Morgan Stanley in Shanghai.
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