The tables turned earlier this year. The credit crunch coincided with new restrictions on Chinese tourists to Macao, the only part of China where gambling is legal. Visitor numbers were down 13 per cent between July and September. Gaming revenues, too, have tumbled. Although broadly flat on a year ago, gross revenues have fallen a third from the January peak to less than $900m in September. As casinos mushroomed across the enclave, competition escalated. Commission rates were jacked up and, just like banks, operators were overly keen to extend credit to players. Profit margins shrank.
Wynn Resorts' Macao business illustrates the point. Adjusted property earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation – which excludes pre-opening costs and property charges among other expenses – have grown on a quarterly basis, or stayed flat, since the beginning of last year. In the third quarter, however, they dipped 40 per cent quarter on quarter.
Gamblers, of course, live on hope. In Macao, home to the City of Dreams, there are two. The first is that Beijing, which reclaimed Macao from Portuguese administration in 1999, will step in, perhaps by relaxing visa restrictions. Gambling is the heart of Macao, employing swathes of the workforce and supplying by far the bulk of government revenues. Beijing, the theory goes, would not want this boat rocked. The second hope is that a credit constraint-led culling of supply will improve profitability for the survivors. But, as punts go, neither is particularly compelling.