Evidence that China just may be set for a year of more sluggish growth than consensus estimates came to light at the start of the month. Two surveys of the manufacturing sector both showed a sharp decline. The China purchasing managers' index, compiled by the brokerage CLSA, fell from 47.7 points to 45.2 points in October – the steepest monthly fall and the lowest point since the index was started in 2004. In addition, a government-backed survey of manufacturers dropped 6.6 points to 44.6 in October, also a record fall.
Morgan Stanley Asia believes the Chinese authorities privately calculate that the economy is growing at below 8 per cent, despite official forecasts of 8-9 per cent growth next year.
The main problem here is that while exports account for only 10 per cent of China's gross domestic product, they are responsible for more than a third of its economic growth. And with recession taking hold around the globe, demand for Chinese exports has fallen dramatically.