PRUDENT ASIA IS UNLIKELY TO BAIL OUT THE WEST

That is a problem for the world, which has decided it is high time Asians stepped up to the plate, or more precisely the cash register. After decades of predicating growth on piled-up savings, weak currencies and hyper-demand from shopaholic Americans – hitherto the world's buyer of last resort – Asians must now start spending some of their hard-earned cash on themselves.

From a macroeconomic point of view this argument makes perfect sense. Takumi Shibata, Nomura's chief operating officer, describes the arrangement between Asia and the rest of the world as vendor financing. “Asians work, produce products and Americans buy. Asians save and Americans borrow.”

That was not bad while it lasted, unless of course you happened to be a Chinese, Japanese or Taiwanese worker with nothing but deferred consumption and national current account surpluses to show for your efforts. It wasn't bad for Americans either. They could buy all the cars and oversized Christmas tree ornaments they wanted, unless they happened to run up an unpayable credit card bill in the process. In macro terms, it all worked beautifully, like a machine in perpetual motion. Until, of course, it toppled over.

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