The logic for selling now, as lock-up periods expire, is compelling. In all, foreign banks spent about $9bn accumulating stakes during the privatisation of China's big three lenders three years ago. Although the Hong Kong-listed shares have fallen sharply from their 2007 peaks, strategic investors are still comfortably in the money. Shares in Bank of China, which are below the initial public offering price, would still yield a gain of about $1.3bn for RBS based on Wednesday's close. Chinese bank prices have further to fall as decelerating economic growth hits loan books. Lending is likely to expand at a less hectic pace, while asset deterioration will inevitably rise. Big government bond holdings means that interest rate cuts, some of which reduce net interest margins, also pummel treasury returns.
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