Keynes and the triumph of hope over economics
人人都打的凯恩斯牌


美国对外关系委员会斯泰尔:大自然舍弃了我们,我们会用圣经来安慰自己,而不是科学;当市场舍弃了我们,我们会向凯恩斯求助。

And indeed, we as a profession are making our voices heard in a way we never get the chance to do when the credit is flowing, businesses are investing and consumers buying what business wants to sell. Then, we make arguments based on data, otherwise known as “facts”, processed through regression analysis and logical rigour, which few humans read. (I know, I am an economics journal editor.) Now, on the other hand, we call for trillion dollar stimulus plans on the basis of little more than citing John Maynard Keynes – and politicians revere us. Citing Keynes gives us special licence to talk economics without using any. To paraphrase the lawyers' dictum, when the facts are on our side, we pound the facts; when theory is on our side, we pound theory; and when neither the facts nor theory are on our side, we pound Keynes – and to great effect.

的确,作为一项职业,我们正让自己的声音被大家听到,而在信贷通畅、企业乐于投资、消费者乐于购买的时期,我们从未有这样的机会。然后,我们依据数据提出观点,这些数据也被称作“事实”,我们会运用回归分析和严格逻辑对其进行加工处理,几乎没有人看得懂计算过程。(我知道这点,因为我是一名manbetx20客户端下载 学刊物主编。)另一方面,我们几乎是单纯以凯恩斯(John Maynard Keynes)的理论为依据,呼吁上万亿美元的刺激计划,而政界人士尊敬我们。引用凯恩斯理论给了我们无需引用其它理论即可讨论manbetx20客户端下载 学的特权。套用律师的格言:当事实在我们这边时,我们打事实牌;当理论在我们这边时,我们打理论牌;而当事实和理论都不在我们这边时,我们打凯恩斯牌——而且收到很好的效果。

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