Faced with an apparent pattern in any data, a key question is always: “Does this pattern represent something real, or is it just chance?” The simplest example: if I measure the heights of five men and five women and discover that the men tend to be taller than the women, I might be on to something, or I might just have some tall men and some short women in my sample. Based on this small sample, how confident should I be that men are in general taller than women?
面对任何数据中一种明显的模式，一个关键问题始终是：“这种模式具有某种真实的意义，还是仅仅是偶然？”举个最简单的例子：如果我测量五男五女的身高，结果发现男人通常比女人高一些，那么我可能是发现了某种规律，也可能只是我的样本中选取了一些高个男性和矮个女性。基于这种比较小的样本，我是否应该确信男性一般都长得比女性高呢？
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