A senior policymaker told me last week that the present situation reminded him of the 1992 crisis of Europe's exchange rate mechanism, when one country after another became subject to speculative attacks – leading to the expulsion of the UK and Italy from the system. In a monetary union, you can no longer bet on exchange rates. But thanks to credit default swaps, you can place convenient bets on the break-up of the eurozone. Last week, speculators bet on an Irish default, and these bets make it more expensive for Ireland to refinance its debt, thus threatening to turn into a self-fulfilling prophecy.
上周，一位高层决策人士告诉我，目前的形势让他想起了1992年欧洲汇率机制危机：当时欧洲各国接连遭受投机冲击，导致英国和意大利退出欧洲货币体系。在一个货币同盟中，你无法再押注于汇率。但由于信用违约互换，你可以很方便地押注于欧元区解体。上周，投机者押注于爱尔兰违约，这种押注提高了爱尔兰为其债务进行再融资的成本，因此可能会成为一个自我实现的预言。