SHORT VIEW
短线观点:日元走下坡路


去年11月下旬,套利交易似乎就已经丧失了对日元汇率的影响力,manbetx20客户端下载 基本面逐渐成为日元汇率的主导因素。日本巨大的贸易逆差令投资者紧张,日元汇率除下行以外别无选择。

Japan's banks did not, as a rule, load up on toxic US mortgage debt. Yet the crisis affected the country deeply. For many years while leverage was easily available, the “carry trade” – borrowing in yen at its low rates to park cash elsewhere – kept Japan's currency cheap. Then, once the credit market turned, bringing the carry trade down with it, there was a prolonged period when the yen functioned solely as a perverse “safe haven”, gaining whenever volatility was rising, as measured by the Chicago Board Options Exchange's Vix index.

一般来说,日本银行并未背负大量美国问题抵押贷款债务,但这场危机仍对该国造成了严重影响。在很容易举债交易的许多年来,“套利交易”(Carry Trade,低息借入日元并把现金投向别处)使日元汇率一直保持在低位。因此,一旦信贷市场逆转并对套利交易形成拖累,就会在很长时间内,让日元充当唯一的反向“避风港”的角色——从芝加哥期权交易所(CBOE) VIX指数的情况来衡量,只要市场波动性加大,日元就会升值。

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