When I give speeches to groups of entrepreneurs, I am invariably asked why the media is so gloomy. I normally reply that journalists believe bad news sells. But I think there is a new, more desperate and personal element to the pessimism: journalists are petrified that their very livelihoods are under threat.
Last weekend I attended a celebratory dinner for hacks at my old Oxford College, Magdalen. Seventy or so writers turned up – foreign correspondents, editors, documentary makers, freelancers and so on. The mood should have been upbeat, but the speeches were doom-laden. Most of the guests I spoke to were worried for their careers and the very future of their profession. They see the local newspaper industry in meltdown, leading dailies and magazines shutting across the US, radio and television broadcasters struggling, and cuts everywhere. The economic downturn has hammered advertising like never before.
But the real killer is the internet: Wikipedia, blogs, Google and all the other free websites are smashing the economics of traditional media organisations. Major outlets have to support loss-making or break-even online operations that are eviscerating their print or broadcast core. Few of the pure new-media players fund any content creation. And contributors are happy to submit material for nothing. Revenues, profits, margins and cash flow have collapsed incredibly quickly for almost all established publishers and broadcasters. Their business models are broken. The breadth, choice and quality of content are likely to be slashed as owners cut editorial budgets to survive.