Is the US (and a number of other high-income countries) on the road to fiscal armageddon? Are recent jumps in government bond rates proof that investors are worried about fiscal prospects? My answers to these questions are: No and No. This does not mean there is no reason for worry. It is rather that there are powerful arguments against fiscal retrenchment right now and strong reasons for welcoming recent moves in the bond markets.
美国（和其它许多高收入国家）是否走在财政大灾难的路上？近期政府债券收益率上扬是否验证了投资者对财政前景的担忧？我给这些问题的答案是：除了否定，还是否定。这并不意味着不存在担忧的理由。毋宁说，目前存在反对财政紧缩的有力论据，以及欢迎近期债券市场动向的强劲理由。
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