A year ago, at the height of the financial panic, the world yearned for a profitable and confident financial sector. It now has what it wants, but hates it. As joblessness soars and the hopes of hundreds of millions of people are blighted, the financial sector's survivors are thriving. Even bonuses are back. Policymakers have made a Faustian bargain. Success feels like failure.
Yet success it has been. The stock market capitalisation of banks has recovered, to an enormous extent (see charts). This does more than indicate confidence in the future of the banks; it also facilitates the capital-raising the banks must do, particularly, argues the International Monetary Fund's Global Financial Stability Report, in the eurozone.
This recovery has been no accident. When central bank money is almost free, prices of risky assets are recovering and competitors have disappeared or are weakened, making money is a relatively simple matter for the strong survivors. With earnings recovering, can bonuses be far behind? Alas, no. According to a recent note from the London-based centre for economics and business research City bonuses will rise by 50 per cent this year, though will remain 40 cent below 2007 levels.