This weekend's G20 meeting will likely fuel, not resolve, the heated debate triggered by a combination of exploding debt and deficits in industrial countries, and the recognition that many now face a future of muted growth and high unemployment.
In one corner stand the “growth now” camp, arguing that expansion is a pre-requisite to service their debt sustainably. Without it tax receipts implode, investment is turned away, and meeting future debt payments is harder. This camp abhors Europe's shift towards austerity, questions Tuesday's tough UK budget, and urges countries like Germany to adopt expansionary policies. Some advocate additional fiscal stimulus even for high deficit countries, like the US.
Against them stand the “austerity now” camp. They point to worsening sovereign debt ratings, noting especially that (despite Europe's rescue package) Greek and Spanish debt risk is back to worrisome levels. They are concerned a coming sell-off in equity and corporate bond markets will deter new investments and aggravate many country's debt problems. For this camp America's request that others postpone fiscal adjustment is irresponsible. Instead, they want budget cuts to lower risk premiums and stave off disruptive debt restructurings.