All signs point to major losses for the Democratic party in the US midterm elections this November. The recovery is slowing, while recent job figures have all but ended hopes that unemployment will fall fast enough to change voter's minds. But for President Barack Obama it really does not matter whether his party loses its congressional majority, or merely a large number of seats. In either case, the days of single-party government in Washington will be over.
To see why a reverse looms, look at the trends that worry Democrats. Their edge in party identification has narrowed sharply. To be sure, Republicans keep picking candidates with views outside the mainstream, most recently in Colorado last week. But voters' views of congressional candidates nonetheless display a pattern consistent with big Republican gains.
Worse, self-proclaimed independents are also increasingly conservative. And survey after survey shows that conservatives are far more enthusiastic about going to the polls. Even more than spilled oil in Louisiana marshland, it is the anaemic economy that sours the public mood. But the trends above suggest something more fundamental. For the steps Mr Obama took – was forced to take, his supporters say – to stem the financial crisis have triggeredAmerican qualms about the reach of state power.