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Targeting currencies will not stop trade imbalances
解决贸易失衡不应以货币为目标


北京大学佩蒂斯教授致信英国《金融时报》,赞成马丁•沃尔夫《中美应接受经常账户指标》一文的观点,但指出一个在制定经常账目标推动再平衡时必须杜绝的现象。

Sir, Martin Wolf is absolutely correct to argue that targeting current account imbalances is far more effective in rebalancing trade than targeting currencies (“Current account targets are a way back to the future”, November 3). After all, simply forcing a revaluation, for example, of the renminbi will have no effect on the trade imbalance if Beijing responds by reducing real interest rates or expanding socialised credit, both of which it did after the renminbi began revaluing in 2005, and which Tokyo did after the Plaza Accords. In both cases the expansion of cheap credit more than reversed the impact of an appreciating currency, and the trade surplus actually grew, rather than shrank.

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