I sincerely hope not – because globalisation is the quickest way to reduce income inequality and raise living standards globally. This year it will get a bad rap from people who fear that more winners in poorer nations turn richer countries into losers. But these caricatures from traditional manufacturers and farmers assume trade and globalisation are zero-sum games.
The evidence suggests otherwise. As access to goods, markets and new technology increases, so does opportunity. The internet, the ultimate globalising force, has made the world’s collective knowledge more accessible than at any time in our history. Pupils who previously had no books can now read online; people who had no bank accounts can do business on mobile phones; and automated translation tools let Russian and American scientists collaborate in real-time on vaccines.
More than that, however, globalisation has already seen 2bn people move into a middle-class lifestyle, meaning a greater population than ever before has a stake in future global growth. It is happening quickly, too, in contrast to previous centuries when wealth slowly trickled down from the richest countries to the poorest. With technology, such change can happen as soon as people are hooked up to the web, creating instant participants in a knowledge economy previously thought to be reserved only for the richest and best-educated nations.