专栏市场

Don’t expect markets to bend it like Beckham

Several years ago, The Daily Telegraph made an unlikely claim about Britain’s most famous footballer. Under the headline “David Beckham a physics genius”, the paper reported a study describing the differential equations that must be solved to compute the trajectory of the ball in a famous Beckham goal.

The relationship between intention and outcome in sport had been highlighted many years earlier in a much cited joint article by the doyen of Chicago economics, Milton Friedman, and the great statistician Leonard Jimmie Savage. Friedman and Savage suggested that the shots of an expert billiard player would be those an accomplished physicist would calculate using knowledge of equations of motion. Like Beckham, the billiard player might not be capable of actually making such calculations, but the assumption

that he did would accurately describe his play.

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约翰•凯

约翰•凯(John Kay)从1995年开始为英国《金融时报》撰写manbetx20客户端下载 和商业的专栏。他曾经任教于伦敦商学院和牛津大学。目前他在伦敦manbetx20客户端下载 学院担任访问学者。他有着非常辉煌的从商经历,曾经创办和壮大了一家咨询公司,然后将其转售。约翰•凯著述甚丰,其中包括《企业成功的基础》(Foundations of Corporate Success, 1993)、《市场的真相》(The Truth about Markets, 2003)和近期的《金融投资指南》(The Long and the Short of It: finance and investment for normally intelligent people who are not in the industry)。

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