In the aftermath of November’s mid-term elections, the sound of Republicans crowing could be heard across the US. After wresting back control of the House of Representatives from the Democrats, and coming within a whisker of regaining the Senate, Republican luminaries were falling over themselves to predict that the White House would be in Republican hands after 2012. The severity of the voters’ verdict on two years of Democratic dominance in Washington prompted President Barack Obama, to concede that his party had taken a “shellacking”.
So it is striking that barely five months on, the main contenders for the Republican nomination are coy about their plans for 2012. At this stage in the last electoral cycle, there were already eight Republican and 10 Democratic declarations. This time around, more Republicans have ruled themselves out than in. Admittedly, back in 2007, the incumbent president could not stand again. But the first primary is less than a year away. That is not long for aspiring White House occupants to organise and raise funds.
This reticence is not due to a sudden outbreak of modesty among Republican hopefuls. Despite November’s drubbing, Mr Obama retains formidable advantages. Only three sitting presidents have been ditched by voters since the second world war and, though his first two years have been difficult, Mr Obama’s approval rating remains at about 48 per cent. Moreover, the president is among the best fundraisers American politics has seen. Running against him will not be cheap.