The tide of battle appears to have turned against the rebels in Libya in favour of Muammer Gaddafi. After losing control of much of the country in the uprising, Col Gaddafi is fighting back with jets, rockets and tanks. Recently, his forces have advanced eastward along Libya’s coast. He could soon be in a position to strike at Benghazi, the rebels’ chief stronghold.
The appearance of momentum should not be overstated. The fighting quality of the dictator’s forces remains open to question. Many of the towns that have fallen to him, often at surprising cost, have been relatively small. When confronted with larger conurbations, such as Misurata, his forces have been repulsed.
Nonetheless, the sombre possibility exists that Col Gaddafi could inflict a decisive defeat on the rebels because of his superior firepower. A successful assault on Benghazi would deal the coup de grace, potentially triggering a bloodbath and mass exodus from the eastern half of the country.