One can see why Ali Naimi, the Saudi oil minister, says this week’s meeting of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries was one of the worst ever. Opec was created to co-ordinate restraints on oil production to keep prices high. But not only did the cartel, not for the first time, fail to agree new output quotas; what its leading members unsuccessfully aimed for was to expand, not restrain, output.
This double failure to pursue its raison d’etre invites the conclusion that Opec’s condition is hopeless, but not serious. The cartel’s power over oil markets is clearly going through one of its toothless phases. This is in part due to irreconcilable political differences: Riyadh wants to stay on good terms with oil-importing powers; Caracas and Tehran must – at least publicly – denounce any truck with the devil. But there are more mundane reasons for the cartel’s incohesion. An agreement to expand output is never likely when most members are producing at capacity; a deal to cut output is unfeasbile when members need every petrodollar to fund bloated budgets.
The resulting reiteration of quotas busted by those able to do so hardly instils fear. Riyadh can still be relied on to use its spare capacity to keep prices under control.