专栏欧元区

The euro is still far from out of danger
欧元危机远未解除


FT专栏作家塞缪尔•布里坦:在最新的希腊救援方案出台之后,欧元区有20%的可能进行联邦式改革,25%至30%的可能解体,但继续勉强维持的可能性仍然最大。

During an enforced absence from column writing I tried to keep up with events – not so much by reading the vast number of books, analyses and speeches, which would have been incompatible with eating and sleeping, but by reflecting on what might have happened if Greece had not joined the euro in 2001. Similar reflections might apply to other peripherals such as Portugal but might need modification in relation to Spain, Italy and Ireland.

在被迫中止专栏撰稿期间,我试图跟上时事的发展——不是通过阅读大量的书籍、分析和演讲稿(那会影响吃饭和睡觉),而是通过思考一件事:假如希腊在2001年没有加入欧元区会怎样。类似的思考或许也适用于其他外围国家,比如葡萄牙,但涉及西班牙、意大利和爱尔兰时则需要进行一些修正。

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