I accepted Martin Wolf’s invitation to “listen to what bond markets are telling us” (Financial Times, 7 September). Unfortunately, I was unable to detect the call to “borrow and spend, please” so audible to Mr Wolf. I took a deep breath and immediately realised what was going on. I might not have been able to hear anything. But I could certainly smell something. I could smell fear.
Bond yields are low not because investors want governments to borrow more. Bond yields are low for the same reason that the gold price is high, the Japanese yen is strong, the Swiss National Bank struggles to control its currency and equities have tumbled. Investors are trying to find pockets of safety in a world where the financial system appears to be slowly crumbling. This is an olfactory, not an auditory, problem.
On their own, low government yields cannot justify higher government borrowing. Back in 2005, Italian and Spanish 10-year bond yields dropped to a little over 3 per cent. Greek bond yields were only a smidgeon higher. At the time, creditors were more than happy to lend to southern European nations. They then jumped ship. Should those nations have increased borrowing just because, for a fleeting moment, creditors were feeling generous?