It’s about the growth, stupid. Bank Indonesia’s surprise decision to cut interest rates has thrown a spotlight on Asian central banks and the potential for a wider shift away from concerns about punchy inflation towards the slowing global economy. Next up is South Korea, meeting on Thursday, followed by Singapore’s twice-yearly policy review on Friday.
Seoul should keep rates on hold. Growth worries are rising, but the recent inflation slowdown still leaves price rises running at 4.3 per cent – above the Bank of Korea’s target range. Singapore neatly typifies the trade-off that central banks must consider: inflation hit a three-year high at 5.7 per cent in August, but the economy is slowing. Singapore’s finance minister, who also chairs the Monetary Authority of Singapore, acknowledged as much this week. He also noted that inflation should ease, raising expectations that the MAS will in fact loosen policy.
Inflation is still uppermost elsewhere, notably in China, where price pressures may have peaked but are not easing fast. India has a bigger problem: 18 months and a dozen rate rises have done little to cool inflation, which, at 9.7 per cent, is roughly double the central bank’s comfort level. Last month’s sharp weakening of many of the region’s currencies, including the rupee, will not have mollified the fears of the inflation hawks.