For a country that is a fulcrum of the global economy, China’s stock market is a marginal player – largely closed to foreigners and seen more as a casino than an efficient allocator of capital.
But the Chinese market deserves a closer look for another reason. It provides an imperfect yet mightily useful leading indicator for the domestic economy.
Shanghai shares started tumbling in late 2007, a year before the global financial tsunami smashed into China’s shores. They bounced back in late 2008, well before a strong recovery took hold. And their crawl downward since then foreshadowed the gradual ebbing of Chinese growth.
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