The dilemma of dealing with North Korea is that Dear Leader Kim Jong-il has nothing to lose by being his truculent self. This dilemma is ever more stark, given America’s inclination to restart a talks process that has failed so often in the past. To avoid repeating this fate, the US must now clearly lay out what the “dark path” will be for North Korea if the talks fail.
Mr Kim will have numerous opportunities to act in bad faith. His negotiators can walk out or cheat on future agreements, while his military can carry out provocations. When the North launched an artillery barrage on a South Korean island in 2010, it dared Seoul and Washington to retaliate. Yet, the South had everything to lose and nothing to gain from brawling with its weaker and desperate neighbour.
Despite this, there have been several recent signs that President Barack Obama’s administration is ready to re-engage after a three-year hiatus. These included a visit by a senior North Korean diplomat to New York in August, and the recent delivery of flood assistance. But to have a hope of overcoming North Korea’s convict mentality, Seoul must closely co-ordinate policy with Washington – and the US must understand that the South will not follow a path of engagement that gives gifts to North Korea simply for coming back to the negotiating table.