There, they’ve said it. Hong Kong Exchanges & Clearing is the first bidder to confirm publicly its interest in the London Metal Exchange. The bidding deadline for the centre of the metals world is Monday and HKEx will probably be up against an exchange world who’s who, including NYSE Euronext, CME Group and IntercontinentalExchange.
Of course they all want the LME, one of the few remaining mutually owned exchanges. Still, that status makes a valuation tricky. Private share trades last autumn valued it at £540m – 57 times 2010 profits – but simply adding a profit-seeking motive would boost income. A bidding war could push the price north of £1bn.
Debt-free HKEx had more than that in cash at the end of last year and borrowing for a deal would be easy enough. But its rivals are hardly stretched; the most “extreme” is NYSE Euronext with net debt worth just 1.6 times earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation. The real question is what LME members would demand over and above cash. Some protection of key features, such as the daily contract structure seem a given. Fine. Retention of the trading floor is open to debate but immediate closure seems unlikely. Any arrangement to retain the LME’s ring, however finite, would cut into early-year income.