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Lex专栏:推动日本股市的真正因素


Lex专栏:日本股市的真正推动因素不是汇率波动及其利润效应,而是风险偏好。如今,投资者押注于日本将推行更为宽松的货币政策,因此股市交易量增长。

Abandon hope, all ye who enter into a debate about currency wars. The IMF says there is no fight in the first place, while the Group of 20 largest economies just agreed to avoid one. Investors in Japan were veterans of this struggle long before it had a name and do not care so long as the yen keeps falling. Look at the dollar’s gains against the yen alongside the benchmark Topix index, and it appears they are on to something. But perhaps stocks are not following the yen so much as both are being driven by another force, namely risk appetite.

死心吧,所有那些参与货币战争辩论的人们。国际货币基金组织(IMF)首先表示,不存在任何战争,20国集团(G20)也刚刚就避免一场货币战争达成一致。早在这场战争被人们赋予名字之前,日本的投资者已经久战沙场了,只要日元继续贬值,他们就不会在意。看看美元兑日元汇率以及日本基准股指东证指数(Topix index)的涨幅吧,似乎它们意识到了什么。但股市或许并不是紧跟日元汇率,因为两者都正受到另一因素的推动——风险偏好。

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