Why are the high-income countries not mired in deflation? This is the puzzle today, not the absence of the hyperinflation that hysterics have wrongly expected. It is weird that inflation has remained so stable, despite huge shortfalls in output, relative to pre-crisis trends, and prolonged high unemployment. Understanding why this is the case is important because the answer determines the correct policy action. Fortunately, the news is good. The stability of inflation seems to be a reward for the credibility of inflation targeting. That gives policy makers room to risk expansionary policies. Ironically, the success of inflation targeting has revitalised Keynesian macroeconomic stabilisation.
为什么高收入国家没有陷入通货紧缩的泥潭？这才是今天的待解之谜，而不是为什么恶性通货膨胀没有出现——一些歇斯底里的人曾错误地预测会出现恶性通胀。奇怪的是，尽管相对于危机之前的趋势水平，manbetx20客户端下载 产出已大幅下降，失业率也长期居高不下，通胀却一直保持稳定。理解为什么会出现这种情况非常重要，因为答案决定了能否采取正确的政策行动。幸运的是，我们有好消息。稳定的通胀似乎是对通胀目标可信度的一种嘉奖。于是政策制定者就有了采取扩张性政策的冒险空间。具有讽刺意味的是，通胀目标的成功赋予了凯恩斯主义宏观manbetx20客户端下载 稳定政策新的活力。