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Rogoff, Reinhart and the spell of magic numbers
manbetx20客户端下载 学存在“神奇数字”吗?


FT专栏作家布里坦:人类对神奇数字的徒劳探索永远不会停止,哈佛大学教授罗戈夫和莱因哈特的故事就是这种堂吉诃德式追求的最新一例。

Humanity will never cease its futile search for magic numbers. The latest example of this quixotic quest is to be found in the saga of Harvard professors Kenneth Rogoff and Carmen Reinhart, who suggested that a debt to gross domestic product ratio above 90 per cent was bad for economic growth. Those conservative politicians and their counsellors who based their advocacy of strict fiscal policy on this magic ratio have retreated with egg on their faces.

人类对神奇数字的徒劳探索永远不会停止。哈佛大学(Harvard University)教授肯尼斯•罗戈夫(Kenneth Rogoff)和卡门•莱因哈特(Carmen Reinhart)的故事就是这种堂吉诃德式追求的最新一例:二人认为,债务与国内生产总值(GDP)之比高于90%将不利于manbetx20客户端下载 增长。一些保守派政客及其顾问以这一“神奇比率”为依据,倡导严苛的财政政策。如今,这些人已经因为受到了羞辱而被迫退却。

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