The question of the UK’s – or perhaps just England’s – position in Europe is now live. This follows the crisis-driven evolution of the eurozone, the decision of Prime Minister David Cameron to hold a referendum on EU membership in the next parliamentary term, the success of the UK Independence party and now pressure from erstwhile Conservative heavyweights such as Lord Lawson. A country that has long been semi-detached, particularly since it decided not to participate in the euro, may soon become detached.
Nothing here is certain. The chances of a referendum are not 100 per cent, since Mr Cameron may well not be prime minister after 2015. But the pressures on the opposition Labour party to make the same offer are strong. The chances that Mr Cameron’s renegotiation will yield anything substantial are, as Lord Lawson stated this week in The Times, small. Given this, the likelihood that the British will vote for exit is large, in view of the increasing integration of the eurozone and near certainty that the UK will refuse to join the single currency for the foreseeable future.
In November I argued that: “The UK is a bystander at the eurozone drama. Its sensible policy is to keep its options open until the outcome is far clearer.” But: “The question is whether domestic politics will allow it to be so sensible.” It now appears that it will not. Given this, it now seems to me better to make a decision, rather than let many years of uncertainty over the UK’s future place in Europe blight the country.