Turkey’s stock market has been riding for a fall. Two weeks ago the Istanbul 100 index hit its all-time high, surpassing even the peaks of 2007. There have been extreme ups and downs since, but its 17 per cent drop since May 22 is the sharpest for a while, and the protests that have paralysed Istanbul in the past few days do not offer a full explanation. The wider issue is that Turkey’s stock market valuation has got out of whack with its economic realities.
Turkey’s economic story is a great one. Per capita income has more than doubled in a decade; inflation has been tamed; a strong economy has emerged from the ruins of the country’s financial crisis in 2000-01. Turkey has won its investment-grade credit status back. Its political stability, in spite of a social revolution on a scale unprecedented in Europe, has been remarkable.
In 10 years, the Istanbul market has risen ninefold. Brazil’s stock market has risen 1.5 times in that period despite (or perhaps because of) being a member of the Bric club and having oodles of oil.