Never try to call an election in the autumn by invoking the polls of the summer. Western voters have shed ironclad party loyalties; classic predictors like faith, class and city-dwelling are as reliable as the weather report. And yet, Angela Merkel’s Christian Democrats are holding steady at 42 per cent, up from 34 per cent in the 2009 contest. This is a shade more than the combined take of the opposition Social Democrats and Greens. The German chancellor is heading for four more years in power.
切勿基于夏天的民调预判秋天的选举。西方选民已不再像以往那样坚定地忠于某一党派。信仰、阶级以及城市出身等经典预测指标的可靠度就像天气预报一样。不过，目前安格拉•默克尔(Angela Merkel)的基督教民主联盟(CDU)的民意支持率稳定在42%的水平上（而2009年竞选时的民意支持率为34%），这个数字比反对党社会民主党(SPD)与绿党(Greens)的合计民意支持率还要高出一点。默克尔有望在德国总理的宝座上继续坐上4年。
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