There has been celebration in the US over the fact that it will become the leading producer of oil and liquefied natural gas by 2014. Some reports describe as the start of a dramatic reshaping of the global energy industry. Others say the prospect is already reshuffling the cards of international energy diplomacy. US energy independence could be achieved by 2025, rather than 2035 as forecast the International Energy Agency 2013 Energy Outlook.
However, the celebrations may be premature and the projections exaggerated.
America’s daily oil production was the highest in the world from the time oil was discovered until the mid-1970s. Average US production over that time period was about 10m barrels per day – far higher than the output of Saudi Arabia. However, that level of daily oil production did not garner the US any significant influence in international oil markets. Nor did it improve US energy security – it continued to import oil in ever greater quantities. Moreover, output levels have since declined.