Something potentially nasty is brewing in Thailand. In recent weeks the world’s attention has understandably been on Ukraine. But the political stand-off in southeast Asia’s second-largest economy is just as intractable. The chances of more serious violence spilling on to the streets is real. For the first time in decades, there have even been murmurings about the possibility of the country splitting into two, with the poorer northeast ceding from a generally richer and more urban south centred on Bangkok.
Of course, it need not come to that. Thailand’s political crisis has, after all, been simmering for years. Somehow the country has managed to carry on – and even to attract bucketloads of foreign investment and large numbers of tourists – in spite of military coups, annulled elections and occasional bloodshed.
Yet the two main sides in the dispute are now more entrenched than ever. If violence is not to boil over with truly frightening consequences, one or both will have to back down. For months, there have been protests on the streets against the government of Yingluck Shinawatra, sister of Thaksin Shinawatra, the self-exiled former prime minister. Protesters say the government is a mere front for Mr Thaksin, who was ousted in a 2006 coup and subsequently sentenced for abuse of state power for corruption). (Mr Thaksin’s lawyers say the trial was politically motivated.) Protests were triggered by a cynical attempt to pass a bill that would have given Mr Thaksin an amnesty.