Last year The Economist magazine devoted two colourful illustrations to the phenomenon of Abenomics, the radical policy to reflate Japan’s economy named after Shinzo Abe. One, bearing the title “Is it a bird? Is it a plane? No . . . It’s Japan!” showed the Japanese prime minister soaring Superman-like through the air. A second, published after stock market jitters last summer, portrayed him plummeting haplessly to the ground. Fifteen months after he came to power, it is time for an Abe audit.
In truth, we are no closer to knowing whether the attempt to banish deflation will end in tears. Those who say it will argue that, because of Japan’s huge stock of debt, if interest rates spike as a result of higher inflationary expectations, the government will be forced to default. In other words, it is precisely when Abenomics reaches its stated aim that it will begin to unravel.
One senior banker argues that Japan’s debt situation means that it was always going to “hit a wall”. Abenomics, in his opinion, merely hastens that day.