The outcome of next week’s referendum on Scottish independence is suddenly, and worryingly, unpredictable. Until a few days ago most observers took the view that, for all the sound and fury of the campaign, there was no chance of Scotland breaking from the rest of the UK. Now, nine days before the vote, complacency has been dispelled. On Sunday a YouGov opinion poll was the first to put the Yes campaign ahead. Yesterday sterling slumped to a 10-month low and shares in Scottish-based banks and insurers fell sharply. In places far beyond Edinburgh and London, people are starting to take a long, hard look at what Scottish independence would mean.
突然之间，下周苏格兰独立公投的结果变得难以预测，这一动态令人担忧。直到几天前，多数观察人士还认为，虽然苏独运动闹得沸沸扬扬，但苏格兰与英国其余地区分离的概率为零。如今，就在距公投还有9天之时，这种自满情绪被驱散了。上周日，尤戈夫(YouGov)民调结果显示，苏独阵营首次处于领先位置。昨日，英镑汇率骤跌至10个月低点，总部位于苏格兰的银行和保险公司的股价也急剧下滑。苏格兰独立到底意味着什么？人们开始对这个问题展开认真的思考，而思考这个问题的人绝不止是那些在爱丁堡和伦敦的人。