Few years in recent decades dawned with as much of a sense of pessimism as 2014. One consistent theme in the predictions for the year was that 2014 looked eerily similar to 1914. Most pundits predicted doom and gloom, especially in east Asia. Yet, while there were many horrific events — from thedowning of flight MH17 over Ukraine, to the abduction of hundreds of schoolgirls in Nigeria and the rise of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant — we have avoided outright world war. Now that the year is closed, with no repetition of 1914, it may be wise to investigate why the pundits were wrong, particularly on their ideas around the potential for conflict in Asia.
近几十年来，很少有年份像2014年那样一开始就充满那么多的悲观情绪。对2014年的预测贯穿了一个主题，即这一年看起来与1914年相似得让人害怕。大多数学者的预测都是悲观和令人沮丧的，尤其是对于东亚。然而，虽然发生了许多可怕的事件——从马航MH17航班在乌克兰坠落，到尼日利亚数百女学生被绑架，以及“伊拉克和黎凡特伊斯兰国”(Isis)的崛起——但我们避免了全面的世界大战。现在，2014年已结束，没有重现1914年的悲剧。探究为什么这些学者预测错了（特别是他们认为亚洲存在冲突可能性的想法）或许是明智的。