Few years in recent decades dawned with as much of a sense of pessimism as 2014. One consistent theme in the predictions for the year was that 2014 looked eerily similar to 1914. Most pundits predicted doom and gloom, especially in east Asia. Yet, while there were many horrific events — from thedowning of flight MH17 over Ukraine, to the abduction of hundreds of schoolgirls in Nigeria and the rise of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant — we have avoided outright world war. Now that the year is closed, with no repetition of 1914, it may be wise to investigate why the pundits were wrong, particularly on their ideas around the potential for conflict in Asia.
These were no lightweight pundits. The eminent historian Margaret MacMillan, in an essay for Brookings in December 2013, said, “We are witnessing, as much as the world of 1914, shifts in the international power structure, with emerging powers challenging the established ones.” She added, “the same is happening between the US and China now, and also between China and Japan”, and also said that “there is potential for conflict between China and two of its other neighbours — Vietnam and Malaysia — as well.”
Graham Allison, the famous Harvard professor, also warned that east Asia was headed towards the “Thucydides Trap”, adding: “When a rapidly rising power rivals an established ruling power, trouble ensues.” In early 2013, the then prime minister of Luxembourg, Jean-Claude Juncker, warned that 2013 was looking dangerously like 1913. The Economist also warned at the end of 2013, “A century on, there are uncomfortable parallels with the era that led to the outbreak of the first world war.”