If only oil-producing countries that got into trouble could merge, bring in fresh management, lay off citizens, cut costs and restructure their operations. At this point in the energy cycle, betting on a national merger wave similar to the corporate one that created supermajors such as ExxonMobil and BP in the late 1990s would be a good investment.
Brazil could merge with Venezuela, helping to solve both the Petrobras scandal and the latter’s lurch toward default. The United Arab Emirates or Saudi Arabia could roll up Nigeria and Russia. Norway could acquire Scotland from the UK.
But countries are not companies, for better or worse. Peaceful mergers are rare. Demergers and spin-offs tend to be more common, along with the occasional hostile takeover and Russian bear hug. Unlike shareholders, who tend to be a fairly dispassionate bunch, citizens have emotional ties.