专栏地缘政治

A frosty peace beckons for the US and China

Asia takes the long view. I once sat in on a discussion in Beijing about the future of American power. The examination question set at the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations asked where the US would be in 2050. In a country usually shy of displaying differences within the ruling elites, it generated a strikingly animated debate.

On one side were those who were convinced that the ingredients of US power — geography, demography, resources, economic vitality, technological prowess and military might among them — would endure. On the other were those who said the US would go the way of great powers through history, laid low by political stasis, cultural decadence and economic decline. No one took a vote, but the first group had the better of the argument.

This debate took place before the global financial crash and the Beijing Olympics. My guess is that had the discussion been repeated a few years later, the pessimists (or were they optimists?) would have carried the day. The story I have heard over and again in east Asia these past few years has been one of impending American retreat. Allies as well as adversaries have doubted the US would stay the course.

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菲利普•斯蒂芬斯

菲利普•斯蒂芬斯(Philip Stephens)目前担任英国《金融时报》的副主编。作为FT的首席政治评论员,他的专栏每两周更新一次,评论manbetx app苹果 和英国的事务。他著述甚丰,曾经为英国前首相托尼-布莱尔写传记。斯蒂芬斯毕业于牛津大学,目前和家人住在伦敦。

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