Nearly two decades ago, Thomas Friedman came up with his “Golden Arches Theory of Conflict Prevention”. No two countries that had McDonald’srestaurants would go to war. The idea suited the heady post-cold war 1990s when people thought humanity would turn to post-ideological goals, like ending hunger. It offered the prospect of ‘homo economicus’ replacing its appetite for war with a Big Mac and fries. Alas, war is now back on the menu and McDonald’s is in trouble. Could the age of globalisation be going into reverse?
The safe answer is no. McDonald’s and other US consumer icons, such as Coca-Colaand Kraft, are certainly stagnating. Their sales at home and abroad have beenheading downwards. McDonald’s suffered a big drop in Asian revenues last year after it was found using expired meat in China while a human tooth turned up in a burger in Japan . But tastes are also changing. The king of fast food is now toying with artisanal sandwiches and kale. It calls this “brand recovery”.
But the woes of old-fashioned US consumer icons hardly qualify as a retreat from globalisation. Newer American brands, such as Apple, Uber and Starbucks, are powering ahead. Mr Friedman also updated his (self-admittedly playful) aphorism to the “Dell Theoryof Conflict Prevention”. No two countries that are part of the same global supply chain will fight each other: the economic penalty would be simply too high. Unfortunately, events are challenging the updated version as well. Insightful though Mr Friedman is, neither theory has emerged intact from what some call the post- post-Cold War world.