It is not easy being China. Growth is slowing but the reforms it needs pull in opposing directions. Faltering economies need easier money but a weak renminbi favours exporters over consumers — precisely the opposite of the rebalancing its investment-reliant economy needs. Meanwhile, the prospect of a falling currency offers speculators a one-way bet against the renminbi. While hard to measure directly, the scale of the resulting capital outflow is clear from China’s falling reserves. It is likely to continue: rates have fallen and will probably fall further. Policy mis-steps have eroded confidence in China’s authorities.
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