As the scale of the potential job losses arising from the artificial intelligence and robotics revolution becomes clearer, a chorus of otherwise disconnected billionaires, trade unionists and others are calling for universal basic income. Recognising the threat posed by these dislocations is welcome and timely, but seeking solace in UBI is a bad idea.
At least one in three jobs is vulnerable to AI and robotics, with routine and repetitive tasks in manufacturing, administration and call centres most easily substituted. Research at the Oxford Martin School estimates that over the next 20 years up to 47 per cent of US jobs, around 40 per cent of UK and European jobs and a higher share of jobs in many developing countries including China, could be replaced by machines. The exponential increase in computing power and machine learning will intensify these vulnerabilities.
It is misleading to think of this as yet another industrial revolution and take comfort in the fact that all previous industrial revolutions have resulted in more and better-quality jobs. This time is different, both in the pace and the reach of change. The growth of new jobs is slower than the destruction of old jobs — and their quality in many cases is inferior, as full-time career employment gives way to gig work or contingency contracts.