How can we protect ourselves against protectionism? In recent weeks, as fears of inflation have ebbed, fear of a trade war has taken over as the greatest risk perceived on international markets.
The latest edition of Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s fund manager survey shows that the greatest “tail risk” perceived by institutional investors is “trade wars” — for the first time since the first month after Donald Trump’s US election victory, which seemed to presage a return to protectionism.
The president recently ended a year in which tariffs stayed largely off the agenda, and the US ducked its opportunity to declare China a “currency manipulator,” by announcing tariffs on steel and aluminium. The immediate equity sell-off that provoked was soon reversed, as investors worked out that the costs were minor. Steel tariffs were only symbolic. But the strength of the signal sent was unmistakable.