In the past, an investor would have been broadly right to call the end of any emerging market party by monitoring the twin tides of US dollar liquidity and mineral commodity price cycles. If one of these two tides were ebbing — the US dollar appreciating or mineral prices falling — the emerging market party would likely be drawing to a close. If both were receding, the party would almost certainly be over.
过去，通过监测美元流动性和矿产大宗商品价格周期这两股大潮，投资者基本上就可以准确地判定任何一场新兴市场派对是否已到达终点。如果这两股大潮之一在退却——美元升值或矿产价格下跌——那么新兴市场派对可能就接近尾声了。如果两股大潮都在退却，那派对几乎肯定就结束了。
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