Viewed medium term, which country is most damaged — Brexit Britain or Donald Trump’s US? Many people would currently name Britain. They expect the House of Commons to vote down the UK’s withdrawal agreement with the EU this autumn, triggering a chaotic “ no-deal Brexit”. That could cause shortfalls of food and medicine, and disrupt travel and trade. Conversely, the betting must be that Trump — whose disapproval rating is at a record 60 per cent — loses office in 2020.
Yet I suspect the UK’s prospects are better. The country’s chances of a deal with Brussels are much higher than commonly thought. Though even a smooth Brexit is a pointless act of self-harm, Britain will probably achieve it with only modest damage by 2020. By then, meanwhile, the US could easily have become ungovernable.
Forecasts of a no-deal Brexit rest on a false assumption: that the withdrawal agreement will include some version of Theresa May’s Chequers proposal to the EU. Broadly, Chequers would keep the UK in Europe’s single market for goods but not for services. Many Tory MPs crave a harder Brexit. If the withdrawal agreement contains Chequers, they would probably join Labour in voting it down, risking no deal.