No one needs reminding that the economic fundamentals of emerging markets aren’t enthusing investors, but they have not suffered a tectonic downward shift this year.
Yet EM stocks, bonds and currencies have so far performed worse than they did than in the same period in 2013, when EM’s vulnerabilities were judged to be more acute.
But focusing only on local metrics misses the point. The global context has always been a critical driver of EM assets, and this is what is changing. Turkey, Argentina, Brazil, Russia, South Africa and India all have idiosyncratic issues, but it is the less benign backdrop that is exposing them. The major tailwinds of recent years — low US inflation and a Chinese economic stimulus — have lost force.
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