G20 summits are falling into a pattern. Osaka this weekend looked much like a rerun of Buenos Aires seven months ago. US president Donald Trump ratchets up his tariff war with China as the meeting approaches, then agrees with his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping to a truce and a resumption of talks. Leaders just about agree on a communiqué restating commitments to the Paris climate change accord, but a separate paragraph lays out US objections. The paper barely covers the cracks.
The de-escalation of US-China trade tension has already been hailed by business leaders and, most likely, by financial markets. Mr Trump’s pledge to hold off further tariffs on Chinese goods while negotiations continue is welcome. His agreement to allow US companies to continue to sell products to Huawei, the Chinese telecoms group, is a sizeable concession. The details, however, are unclear — as is what the US president received from the Chinese side in return beyond a promise to buy, in Mr Trump’s words, a “tremendous amount” of US farm products.
Yet an agreement to keep talking, without undoing any tariffs already imposed, constitutes a depressingly low bar for celebration. There is, moreover, little reason to assume the ceasefire will last much longer than that agreed in December. The breakdown in May showed talks are running into each side’s red lines. Beijing is resisting Mr Trump’s insistence that it amend domestic legislation to ensure government departments abide by promises to curb their trade-distorting interventions in China’s economy, saying this infringes its sovereignty. The Trump administration is balking at Chinese demands to lift all tariffs once a deal is agreed, not once Beijing implements it.