Until this week’s trade-related falls, global equity markets had performed strongly this year, advancing as investors moved to discount possible monetary stimulus — and some fiscal expansion in various countries as well.
The FT fund has produced a return of more than 10.7 per cent in the year to date, while having half the money invested in safer bonds and cash to control the risks. The earlier sale of the position in Germany, which is most exposed to the trade war and manufacturing downturn, will help protect the fund a bit more in the sell off. The technology bias of the portfolio has helped, with a strong performance from the fund’s biggest holding which is in the Nasdaq market index.
Now, after China has been branded a currency manipulator by the US, resulting in a market sell-off, investors need to ask themselves will the combined monetary and fiscal stimulus live up to expectations? Could it disappoint or could it overshoot, changing the inflationary picture after years of little or no inflation in the developed world?