Defending its sovereignty in an increasingly hostile world has become a new leitmotif for the EU. It started with France’s Emmanuel Macron presenting an ambitious vision in 2017 for how Europe could defend its values and interests in the global economy. Other EU leaders and policymakers have since adopted the sovereignty mantra. As the Financial Times has shown in its series on Europe First, it is beginning to take shape in policy terms that could have profound consequences for Europe’s model of economic development and its trading relationships with other powers.
Europe’s new assertiveness is born from a feeling of vulnerability. The US under Donald Trump, and probably his successors, no longer automatically shares Europe’s economic and security interests. China, a promising market, is now officially viewed as a systemic rival. Europe was left behind in the digital platform revolution and it risks losing out in other potentially transformative technologies, such as artificial intelligence. The increasing dominance of US tech groups is potentially bad for European consumers. Other countries’ energy-consuming industries are freeriding on European efforts to reduce carbon emissions.
Internal dynamics are also at work, pulling the EU in a protective if not yet protectionist direction. Germany’s export machine is sputtering. Brexit will deprive the EU of a heavyweight liberal voice even if Britain is no longer a paragon of open markets. Even free-trade champions like the Dutch are demanding more action to curb subsidised Chinese imports and investment.